opinionWar

The Zero Conundrum of Countering Threats

In terms of aircraft accidents, 2014 was the safest year on record for the U.S. Air Force. In the space of just one year, the service achieved a 32 percent reduction in the number of serious mishaps. According to Air Force Magazine, the accident rate per 100,000 flying hours—a standard metric in aviation—was a stunningly low 0.44. To put this is context, the U.S. rate for general aviation in 2013 was 5.85. This was also an all-time low, according to the National Transportation Safety Board, but the Air Force was better, by an order of magnitude.

So, should the Air Force celebrate this accomplishment? In one sense, of course it should. Something is obviously going right when an organization as large and active as the Air Force achieves a new record in aviation safety. Airmen at all levels—from civilian and military policymakers down to the pilots who fly the airplanes and mechanics who fix them—deserve great credit for making accidents increasingly rare. This is especially true when one remembers the Air Force is flying the oldest aircraft, on average, in its history.

But this celebration must be tempered with ambivalence. In 2014, two manned aircraft were destroyed and ten Airmen died in aircraft accidents that were entirely preventable. Those Airmen will never return to their families. Further, accidents resulted in equipment damage amounting to many millions of dollars. Others suffered injuries requiring long, painful recovery periods. In any year, the only acceptable number of accidents is zero, and in 2014, the Air Force failed to achieve this standard.

In response, the Air Force has redoubled its efforts with a new safety initiative to reduce the numbers even further. This initiative is titled, “Quest for Zero.” Air Force leaders will stress compliance with safety directives, Air Force supervisors will ensure their people get the proper training, and Air Force people will practice discipline as they do their jobs, all in the attempt to reach a goal that will never be attained. Somewhere, somehow, there will a bad accident. Someones life will be changed forever, and the Air Force will have failed.

The Air Force is not alone in its ambitious benchmarks. Its Quest for Zero initiative resembles a similar one by Mayor De Blasio called Vision Zero to reduce traffic fatalities in New York. The Secret Service has similarly called for zero security breaches.

In this world of failures, it is inevitable that those who protect us will fail as well. Despite their best efforts, an attack will eventually get through, and people will be killed.

Such is the nature of this type of problem. The only standard is perfection, but we can never reach that standard, therefore failure is inevitable. If we focus only on the failures, however, we may miss some very important successes.

I was reminded of this as I read a recent Washington Post headline: “After Paris Attacks, Questions About Intelligence Failures.” In one sense, the headline is probably accurate. There is a high probability that someone in the intelligence and law enforcement communities knew something that could have prevented the recent terrorist attacks in Paris. Something kept that piece of information from being used. It could have been someone that intentionally failed to do their job that day, although that is doubtful. It is much more likely that the failure resulted from an error in communication, process, or procedure.

After every aircraft accident, the Air Force convenes an investigation to analyze the chain of events that led to the ac