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Vladimir Putin is No Mystery

There are many theories put forward as to the goals, intentions, and motivations of Vladimir Putin, yet he remains a mystery to most. The response of Western governments to his machinations in Ukraine and the false predictions that Russia should have backed down by now show a misunderstanding of his intent and underestimation of his will. Growing up in the former Czechoslovakia before immigrating to America, I lived in a country under Soviet dominance for 20 years during the Cold War. This period in Russian history is clearly an era Putin wishes to return to. The Obama administration talks of a “reset” in U.S.-Russia relations; Putin wants to reset it to the Cold War. I believe that those of us like me who lived behind the “Iron Curtain” have insight into who the Russian president is. He is less of a mystery to me.

 

Calculation, not Russian Roulette

Putin is a huge part of Europe’s future, an active, driving force behind much of what happens there. Unlike the West European  states which today take a more passive approach to world events and prefer to let the EU and international institutions they have developed shape events, Putin takes a much more active role in shaping events that affect Russia. He is willing to use economic coercion in the form of “energy politics, military means, such as provocative displays of force and asymmetric warfare, and information warfare that uses the media to befuddle Western understanding of his actions.  These are the concerted actions of a man who has a strategy and clear purpose in mind, not someone who is making it up as he goes along.

Putin is not an all-out charging conqueror; excessive risk does not suit him. He is a calculating planner and an opportunist who works patiently to craft perfect conditions and then acts when the time is right. The invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula was not a spur of the moment decision, but a well-developed plan. The timing of the invasion is particularly instructive. Following the feelings of international goodwill that accompanied the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics – an event that went much better than predicted – no one expected such an action. The annexation caught the West wholly flatfooted and unable to respond. It stood by as Putin’s “little green men” invaded another sovereign country under only the thinnest veneer of deniability. The Olympics served as a strategic diversion for an invasion worthy of a Soviet-era operation.

Putin is not an all-out charging conqueror. Excessive risk does not suit him. He is a calculating planner and an opportunist who works patiently to craft perfect conditions and then acts when the time is right.

An additional dimension to Putin’s strategy is to portray an image of strength to both his own people and the West. He has successfully cultivated his appearance as a tough man for a long time. Think of the pictures of Putin donning military attire and combat boots, wielding a hunting rifle in the wilderness bare-chested, swimming with strenuous butterfly strokes in cold water, and so forth. All of this conduct was certainly meant to impress Russians and intimidate foreigners. He wants foreign leaders to recognize how inadequate they are in comparison to him, and that he is nothing like them. He wants to portray himself as physically strong in contrast to Western politicians who appear not only physically weak, but appear weak in resolve the longer they fail to challenge him, even when it is apparent he is not being an honest broker.

 

Putinology

As a noted psychiatrist Dr. Keith Ablow assessed:

“Vladimir Putin is no psychological mystery. While I have certainly not treated Mr. Putin, his actions on the world stage tell me that he believes that those with power should use it and that those who are reticent to use it are no different from those who are inherently weak. What is more, it appears to me that he believes weak individuals and peoples and nations are placed in his path specifically to yield to him and to Russia—which are for him, very nearly one thing.”

Putin’s actions display a narcissism that is a defense mechanism resulting from traumatic events which is designed to protect him against feelings of inferiority. Though stories of Putin’s early life are spotty and conflicting, it is clear that he grew up in desperately poor circumstances in Leningrad, a city that was nearly destroyed by the Nazi siege eight years before his birth. The picture is one of a boy placed in a situation in which he had to fight or fly—and Putin fought. To protect his ps