As the P5+1 talks with Iran drudge along toward a tentative agreement, it makes sense to throw out conventional ideas of what successful rapprochement looks like. In fact, piecemeal diplomatic progress that has come out of this legitimate attempt at conflict resolution could lead to unexpected wins for both sides.
If the negotiations to reduce Iranian nuclear capacity in exchange for lighter sanctions against the Islamic Republic fail to materialize by November 24th, every skeptical congressman, pundit, analyst, blogger, soldier, and armchair diplomat will collectively let loose a blistering “we told you so.” A Republican-controlled Congress will push for stiffer sanctions in January. Israel will threaten military action. And the Obama Administration will ask for more time. Inevitably, both sides will say that there is still time for reconciliation, talks will be extended, and the game will continue. Yet, crazy as it may seem, this is the ideal outcome.
While skeptics view the negotiations as a zero-sum game, there are many different layers to it most of which bear fruit for both the P5+1 and Iran hopefully leading to future sustained relations that build trust over time at the price of a more politically tenable, last-minute deal. Most importantly, Iran and the U.S. are actually talking on a regular basis and directly with one another. This alone was difficult to imagine only a brief while back. Even if the nuclear talks go nowhere fast, the good will that has been built thus far should be used as a springboard to talk about other, more pressing non-nuclear issues.
Iran and the West need each other in Iraq. ISIS has proven to be a thorny problem for both sides and one that cannot be dealt with by carrying out airstrikes alone. Dug in, well-financed, battle-hardened, and efficient, ISIS draws strength as a diplomatically untenable force and from its lack of interest in the world of secular politics. Iran knows Iraq far better than the U.S., and this knowledge is extremely useful to the U.S. who is better equipped militarily to deal with the threat. While the U.S. is muddling through an air campaign to try and defeat ISIS, Iran is already fighting it with boots on the ground. A combination of American military might and Iranian intelligence on the ground would be a serious existential threat to ISIS.
Even if the nuclear talks go nowhere fast, the good will that has been built thus far should be used as a springboard to talk about other, more pressing non-nuclear issues.
Stability in Afghanistan and the cessation of opium production there are other areas of mutual benefit. Iran has the world’s highest heroin use per capita, which makes sense given that about 80% of Afghan heroin